Jeremy Corbyn tables a no confidence motion in the government after the historic defeat.


a year ago

I’m not much of a bettor but—I’m saying 80% there’s another referendum and Brexit doesn’t happen.


1) No politician will willingly inflict that kind of pain on the populace without a mandate. Given the narrow margin victory (in a highly dubious campaign) in 2016, there is no mandate for executing something as tenuous as Brexit, which is an ideological rallying cry at best, but devoid of any discernible merits in its anticipated outcome. To go through with it would be to carry out an extreme, damaging, uncertain, and permanent policy change, and most importantly for the politicians themselves—that they will go down in history as fools.

2) It’s just so stupid. Brexit was a trick. The EU has given the UK the option to rescind the Article 50 trigger and absolve Brexit altogether. Another referendum, taken in 2019, would almost certainly come out in favor of Remain, by a larger margin that the 2016 vote.

3) Most of the influential Labour front bench (aside from Corbyn) supports another referendum, as do a significant number of Tories. My guess is that this will drag on until the 11th hour, then steps will be taken to extend the exit date and call a new referendum. As I said, I’m not a bettor, but if I were, I’d put money on it.